Arvind Kejriwal may be the chief minister of Delhi but he is actually from Hisar in Haryana. There is therefore now an interesting twist to the alliance permutation between Congress and AAP. Here is what has been happening to the negotiations between the two bitter enemies, now attempting to unite, possibly on the principal of ‘enemy’s enemy is a friend’.  

AAP’s starting position, when talks began, was that there should be an alliance in Delhi, Punjab (from where the party has MPs and MLAs), Goa, Chandigarh and Haryana. But they came up against the Congress view that they should stick to Delhi. Congress is interested in state-specific alliances as they consider themselves the national party. To digress into the SP-BSP version: The Congress wanted in, in Uttar Pradesh but did not offer a fair entre in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and so on. Therefore, the BSP put its foot down.

The AAP-Congress bargaining, therefore, takes place in the backdrop of the Congress potentially cutting the primary alliance fighting the BJP in the nation’s largest state. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu and CPI (M) General Secretary Sitaram Yechury have all reportedly been arguing for a grand alliance emerging from the national capital and some them have tried to be mediators between Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi.     

So what’s been happening behind the scenes leading to Rahul Gandhi’s tweet on April 14 that the Congress is willing to give 4 of Delhi’s 7 seats to AAP? The talks have primarily been between AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh and Congress’ veteran Ahmed Patel. There has been no direct conversation between Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi except at a meeting hosted by Sharad Pawar where Rahul was asked direct questions about the alliance by Chandrababu Naidu.  When Rahul apparently threw up his hands and said that the Delhi state leaders were against an alliance, Naidu reportedly said that state units have to listen to the leadership and not the other way around.  

Others weighed in to say that the primary goal is fighting BJP. Subsequently, a conversation started and Rahul has obviously risen above the misgivings of a section of the old guard in his party and has come around to the idea of an alliance. The problem for AAP is that he has been advised against expanding it outside Delhi. AAP, interestingly, is being rather realistic about the Punjab scenario and is not pushing for an arrangement in that state on which they once invested considerable energy. They admit that Congress is strong and will take on the BJP-Akali arrangement.  

AAP has however become adamant about Haryana. Here is their argument that is a bit complicated as it involves understanding the complexities of a breakaway faction of the Lok Dal once founded by Devi Lal. This faction named the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) is led by the MP from Hisar, Dushyant Chautala, great-grandson of Devi Lal, and all of 31 years old. Expelled from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), Dushyant formed the JJP on December 9, 2018, and very quickly got down to a show of strength.  In the by-election to Haryana’s Jind Assembly in January this year, the JJP came second after the BJP that won the seat with 50,000 votes. The JJP got 37,000 votes while Congress’ high profile spokesperson Randeep Singh Surewala got just 22,000 votes. The INLD finished fifth among leading parties, getting only 3,454 votes.

Now AAP has come into an alliance with the JJP in the state bordering Delhi where Assembly Elections will take place by October this year. Since the Lok Dal and all its various splinters have historically had bad relationships with the Congress, AAP is playing mediator and trying to stitch up an anti-BJP front in the state while also getting an entry there.  

Therefore, they began offering a Haryana arrangement to Congress. The arithmetic that was first offered to the Congress for Haryana’s 10 seats is as follows: 4 Congress, 4 JJP, 2 AAP. Congress rejected the offer. Next, they were offered Congress 6, JJP 3 and one for AAP. Congress has reportedly gotten back said they would agree to 2 for JJP, on hearing which Dushyant Chautala apparently lost his temper.  

AAP’s position is that principal purpose of election 2019 should be to defeat Modi so why won’t the Congress agree to this proposition in the state likely to be swept by the BJP? That way, they say, the BJP faces a challenge in 18 seats if Chandigarh is included. In Chandigarh AAP’s Gul Panag got 108,642 votes in 2014. Kirron Kher of the BJP won Chandigarh by a margin of 69,642 votes while Pawan Bansal of the Congress came second. The BJP got 42.2% of the votes in Chandigarh while Congress managed 26.8% and AAP 24%. AAP says they would support the Congress candidate in Chandigarh as well if there is a Haryana arrangement.  

Rahul Gandhi has tweeted that the Congress is ready for an arrangement in Delhi whereby they fight in 3 seats and the AAP in 4. AAP feels that they are the stronger force in Delhi and Congress has no structure left (true). But some voters, particularly those from the minority community, would be more enthused about voting in the event of an alliance. AAP is agreeable to the 4-3 understanding in the event of the quid pro quo in Haryana. Otherwise, they say, it should be 5-2 and the Congress would have “gifting” the BJP 10 extra seats in Haryana.  

There are other twists happening in Haryana. AAP sources point to the bad blood within the Congress state unit chief Ashok Tanwar, a Dalit and former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. They say that Hooda senior is adamant against an alliance with the JJP as Chautala is also a Jat and therefore potential competition. They see it as a scorched earth policy where the Congress loses the Lok Sabha but under Hooda senior again tries for the Assembly in a situation where his rival Ashok Tanwar would have been cut to size after a dismal show in the national election. Sources also claim that Deependra Singh Hooda (son of Hooda senior) is, however, not entirely closed to the idea of a Haryana arrangement as he would like to retain his Lok Sabha seat of Rohtak.     

There are wheels within wheels in any understanding between political parties. Whatever happens between AAP and Congress has to be done or undone in the next few days as both Haryana and Delhi vote on May 12. Therefore by early next week, the candidates have to start filing their nominations and the alliance would “be or not be” by then and this would certainly be an outdated column.